基于马尔科夫链的恶劣天气船舶行为预测

准确预测恶劣天气时船舶行为是港口水域应急调度和高效安全管理的关键,提出一种基于马尔科夫链的恶劣天气船舶行为预测模型.根据分析船舶行为实际变化规律,得出船舶行为是由船舶在不同空间进行状态转移而形成,然后结合船舶行为分布数据采用经验风险最小化策略求解状态转移矩阵,最后通过初始状态分布和状态转移矩阵预测恶劣天气时船舶行为.实例验证和分析结果表明该预测模型能科学准确地预测恶劣天气时船舶行为,可为港口应急调度与高效管理提供有效参考.     

开孔沉箱盖板顶托力现场观测与分析

针对某工程开孔沉箱消浪室盖板顶托力问题,采用现场观测研究手段,对顶托力与潮位进行观测,总结潮位和顶托力分布特点,分析顶托力在单日、短时长和整个观测期间的规律以及顶托力过程和历时,对比盖板抬高0. 5 m后顶托力变化。结果表明:顶托力增长过程与潮位升高过程一致,盖板受力为潮位静水压力和波浪动水压力共同作用的结果,不同仓之间的受力表现为后仓中仓前仓,若盖板抬高0. 5 m,盖板受力状态将得到明显改善,沉箱盖板底高程对顶托力起着决定作用。     

应用HYPACK软件进行航道回淤观测应注意的问题*

以连云港徐圩航道回淤观测项目为例,介绍HYPACK综合导航系统中进行水深数据处理时水深选择、成图水深检查校核及水深测量精度的分析功能,提出须注意的问题及解决方法,同时介绍快速绘制批量横断面图及冲淤图,以直观反应航道的冲淤变化规律.     

Sensor location problems in path-differentiated congestion pricing

Path-differentiated congestion pricing is a tolling scheme that imposes tolls on paths instead of individual links. One way to implement this scheme is to deploy automated vehicle identification sensors, such as toll tag readers or license plate scanners, on roads in a network. These sensors collect vehicles’ location information to identify their paths and charge them accordingly. In this paper, we investigate how to optimally locate these sensors for the purpose of implementing path-differentiated pricing. We consider three relevant problems. The first is to locate a minimum number of sensors to implement a given path-differentiated scheme. The second is to design an optimal path-differentiated pricing scheme for a given set of sensors. The last problem is to find a path differentiated scheme to induce a given target link-flow distribution while requiring a minimum number of sensors.     

长江南京以下12.5 m深水航道二期工程深水潜堤软基变形动态监测技术

针对水下软基变形动态监测应用少、实施难度大的问题,进行深水潜堤软基变形动态监测技术研究,采用分层沉降变形和深层水平位移监测方法,经水下仪器选型、搭建水上观测平台、优化仪器水上安装和保护方案以及监测实施,研制出深水条件下软基变形动态监测技术。该技术实现了从传统的陆上监测到水下监测的转变,不仅安全可靠、数据准确,而且适用于大水深监测条件,对类似工程软基变形监测具有重要的参考和指导意义。     

The impact of extreme weather conditions on long distance travel behaviour

This paper examines traveller attitudes and responses towards disruption from weather and natural events. An internet-based travel behaviour survey was conducted with more than 2000 respondents in London and Glasgow. Of these respondents, 740 reported information on over 1000 long distance trips affected by extreme weather and natural events over the previous three years. Results show respondents are generally cautious towards travelling during extreme weather events. For a slight majority in the case of air and public transport, and a greater one in the case of car, travellers did not considerably alter their travel plan following the disruption. This was explained not only by less disruptive weather conditions (with heavy snow and volcanic ash being the most disruptive) and impact, but also by the relative importance of their trips. Differences between transport modes were not substantial. Business trips sometimes appeared to give travellers more flexibility, some other times not. Origin and destination did have an impact on reaction, as well as the presence of children whilst travelling. Mixed results were obtained about socio-economic and attitudinal variables. Age in particular did not appear to have a significant effect. Whilst most respondents did acknowledge no external influence in their decision, results showed an important contribution of transport organisation staff, as well as home and mobile internet technology. A limited but still considerable number of respondents indicated their closest friends/relatives as the main influence of their decisions. The results will help planners deploy strategies to mitigate the negative effects of weather related disruptions.     

双线船闸对拉钢板桩结构受力特性

以新夏港双线船闸工程为例,利用ABAQUS建立船闸闸室和周围土体有限元分析模型,并根据施工期原型观测数据进行模型验证。基于观测数据和数值分析,探讨在施工过程中单锚板桩和对拉板桩的受力特性。研究了两种不同板桩结构随着闸室土体开挖的内力与变形规律以及板桩墙两侧土压力分布等问题。结果表明:施工期内,两侧单锚板桩变形基本一致,中间对拉钢板桩变形基本一致,整体性良好;闸室单侧开挖时,开挖侧对拉板桩的工作状态与单锚板桩相同;后排板桩发挥锚碇作用,其水平位移、土压力均随着土体深度逐渐增大。     

浅谈交通流量观测仪的选型问题

通过对交通流量观测仪器的分析 ,论述了交通量观测所需仪器的选型原则     

根据观测数据求拟桥拱轴线

针对某三孔拱桥缺乏设计及施工资料的情况，提出了根据拱桥的观测结果拟合拱桥轴线的一种简便有效的方法．